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Selasa, 07 April 2009

Betting: View From The Trading Room

Tuesday 7th April 2009

Well, the Brawn Domination looks set to continue after another strong showing from Jenson Button in Sepang, and up at Skybet we have reacted by cutting the winner of the opening two grand prix into just 11/8 to win the Drivers' Championship.
Looking past Button, there's just look to be so many pitfalls in all the options. Team-mate Rubens Barrichello is 6/1, but Button looks to have the jump on the Brazilian, and that only needs to continue for a few more races for the team to put their weight behind Jenson - Ross Brawn was never averse to running a main man plus wing man at Ferrari, so he won't be scared to manage his drivers in such a way again.
Lewis Hamilton comes next in the betting at 8/1, but you would have to be fairly brave to back him at this stage - the car looks like an absolute dog, and for all the might and muscle of McLaren, they are going to have a mountain to climb if they are to give Lewis a winning car.
Felipe Massa and Kimi Raikkonen are available at the same price, but again, despite an impressive second practice in Malaysia, they looked way off the pace throughout Sunday regardless of any tactical mistakes they may have added into the mix.
Sebastian Vettel could be the best of the rest, and we have actively looked to keep the prodigious German on-side at Skybet. Given the right breaks, his season could be looking much better than it currently is, but he was probably the second quickest man on the track in Australia and put in an impressive qualifying performance in Malaysia. The Red Bull looks pretty competitive - particularly in his hands - and although I can't see the FIA undermining the Stewards decision from the opening pair of races, he wouldn't be far off favourite for the title if the diffuser row did go against Brawn GP.
In the Constructors' title, we shortened Toyota dramatically after their 3rd and 4th this week, and their consistency has seen them soar dramatically up the table. It was the second consecutive race they have secured those final positions, and puts them 12.5 points clear of the chasing back, but still struggling to match Brawn GP.
We've installed Brawn at 11/10 for the title, with Ferrari available at 9/4 and Toyota the big market movers into 11/2 from 12/1 after their strong show. McLaren look down and out even at this stage, and we eased them to 14/1. For all Hamilton's talent, if they don't have a competitive car until four or five races into the season, and Heikki Kovalainen continues to amaze with his ability to retire before completing the first lap, its hard to see the team troubling the bigger guns.

Dave Pilgrim

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